Look North: Time to Back the North's Potential

A picture of a train.

What is the Northern Powerhouse? 

In June 2014, in the Power Hall of Manchester’s Museum of Science and Industry, George Osborne outlined his vision to see Britain’s northern cities to become a ‘powerhouse’ of the British economy. The vision would be materialised through investment in transport links to connect Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield, Hull and the Northeast (Newcastle primarily). It was believed that through this ‘knitting together,’ the North’s major cities would allow the region to “take on the world.”  

5 years on, the vision of a Northern utopia failed to materialise. The number of cancelled and significantly late trains on TransPennine Express and Northern franchises more than doubled. Almost one in every 20 services were either cancelled or more than 30 minutes late to arrive at its destination costing businesses an estimated £38 million in the summer of 2018.  

Despite this, there was some seeming success from the first Northern Powerhouse project. There were approximately 34,000 more jobs in ‘professional, scientific and technical jobs’ in 2019 compared with 2014. There was also slightly higher economic growth in the north than the national average, a 10.7% rise between 2014 and 2017, compared with 10.6% for the UK as a whole. Moreover, employment in the north increased about 7% compared to the UK average of just over 6%. 

However, the original iteration of the Northern Powerhouse project is widely believed to have failed to bring about the desired changes, obtaining names such as ‘Northern Powercut,’ or the ‘Northern Poorhouse.’ Alongside the disappointing improvements in transport, the IPPR study also found that 200,000 more northern children were living in ‘poor’ households in 2019 than there was in 2014.  

Why has it been renewed? 

The North has taken many economic hits in the recent years. In 2015, the then Chancellor George Osborne announced a high-speed rail line across the North which failed to materialise. Boris Johnson’s pledge to ‘level up’ the North never came to fruition. Undoubtedly driven in part by the electoral rewards of appealing to the ‘left behind’ North, a consensus had developed that the North did possess untapped economic potential despite the lack of delivery.   

The cancellation of the Northern leg of High-Speed Rail 2 was a big blow for the North’s economic ambitions and its desire to provide an economic rival to London. To add salt to the wounds, the East West Rail project was also announced in the 2024 Autumn budget, aiming to connect Oxford and Cambridge with more frequent trains and new stations. Although there is a strong argument surrounding the economic necessity for this transport link, from a Northern perspective it epitomises the betrayal once more and yet again a prioritisation of the South over the North. 

However, with the recent announcement from the government, the ‘Build if from the north’ cries seemingly appear to have been answered. With this current plan, there will be a new high-speed line between Liverpool and Manchester, and a line between Birmingham and Manchester. Contained within the plans as well are the ambition to make Manchester Airport becoming the most connected airport outside London, alongside connections between Leeds and Hull. 

What economic impact will this have? 

With the huge caveat that this project will be delivered, if it can be implemented the economic rewards are huge. The government have estimated that up to £40 billion a year could be injected into the British economy if productivity in the North was lifted just to the national average, by improving labour mobility and stimulating private investment.  

If the North can simply be elevated to a level of interconnectivity akin to London and the Southeast, then better-paid jobs stay in the region, rather than talent draining south due to poor transport links. Currently, a Paddington to Reading rail journey of 35 miles takes just 22 minutes, whereas a rail journey between Liverpool and Manchester airport of just 29 miles can take 1 hour and 25 minutes. 

If the project is delivered, not only will there be greater interconnectivity at the end of the project, but jobs will also be able to be delivered for the ‘planning, development, design and construction of the project.’ Northern construction and development companies are set to receive £570 million to expand their training facilities. 

If the government is serious about growing the economy, one of the best places to start would be to invest in the North. The London-centric economy we currently have has resulted in one of the most geographically unequal countries in Europe. This disparity is likely only going to be reinforced with the trend continuing amongst young graduates, frequently moving to London for better career opportunities, with over 60% of relocating graduates moving to London and the South. This potential ‘brain drain’ from other regions of the country towards London means that other areas of the country will continue to be economically disadvantaged in comparison to London. Tackling this imbalance requires a two-pronged approach: improving access to the North for those looking to relocate or invest, while simultaneously making it easier and more affordable for existing residents to travel within the region.